Bihar Polls 2025: Nitish Kumar has been the Chief Minister of Bihar since 2005, and in the last 20 years, he has managed to win the title of U-Turn Man of the Janata Dal United. Notably, in his 20-year tenure as the Bihar CM, Nitish Kumar has switched allegiance twice – between 2014 and 2017 and 2022 and 2024. Kumar, now claims that he won’t go anywhere (leave the NDA), but his flip-flops and 20 years of rule have created a dilemma for the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party). The RJD, which came into power with the help of Nitish Kumar twice, is now banking on anti-incumbency to gain power. While anti-incumbency is definitely a factor at play in the Bihar polls for the JDU, it appears to be a bigger concern for the BJP.
Bihar BJP has 74 MLAs, the second largest in the state after RJD’s 75, and then it has ministers from the Legislative Council. Altogether, 80 of its MLAs/MLCs, including ministers, will go to the polls this time. Having been in the government on and off, the BJP leaders face a performance challenge in the state asthe Lok Sabha polls has shown that they cannot win every time on just Narendra Modi’s name and credibility.
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Lesson From Gujarat, Chhattisgarh
According to an Indian Express report, a BJP core group meeting held last week to finalise candidates also explored the possibility of a large-scale reshuffle, drawing from past strategies. The idea was compared to the Gujarat model of 2021–22, when the party, facing anti-incumbency ahead of the Assembly polls, replaced the entire state Cabinet and denied tickets to 45 of its 108 sitting MLAs. Even senior leaders and ministers were not spared in the bid to present a “new face” to voters as the party sought a seventh straight term in the state.
This was not the first time the BJP experimented with such drastic changes. In 2019, ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, the party replaced all its sitting MPs in Chhattisgarh, a state where it had suffered a heavy defeat in the Assembly elections just months earlier. By doing so, the leadership aimed to reset its political narrative and neutralize local dissatisfaction. Both in Gujarat and Chhattisgarh, the strategy ultimately worked in the BJP’s favor, strengthening the perception within the party that sweeping overhauls can help blunt anti-incumbency and revive its electoral prospects.
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BJP’s Dilemma
However, the saffron party is facing a dilemma while mulling the reshuffle. The party wants to contest around 101 seats in the state and by dropping sitting MLAs, it could create an army of rebels and if they join opposition parties or contest independently, may hurt the party’s official candidates, just like what happened in Karnataka. And then, there is a pressure to find the right candidate with higher winnability, keeping in mind the caste and religion equations in the state. This has turned out to be a double-edged sword for the BJP. The same is also a concern among the party MLAs, who fear losing a ticket could cost their reputation and career and thus, don’t want to quit the race at any cost.
While the 243-assembly seats of Bihar will go to the polls in November, the BJP only has a few days left to decide and take a final decision, as a delay in candidate selection may further delay the campaign outreach.