Rupee falls 13 paise to all-time closing low of 85.65 against U.S. dollar

Image used for representational purposes. File | Photo: C. Venkatachalapathy/The Hindu

The rupee depreciated 13 paise to close at a fresh record low of 85.65 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday (December 31, 2024), ending the year with a sharp 3% loss on significant foreign fund outflows and a strong greenback in global markets.

Forex traders said the rupee has been under continued pressure amid the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts and the “Trump factor” driving up the dollar index (DXY) and U.S. 10-year bond yields.

Additionally, slowing domestic macroeconomic growth, widening trade deficit and persistent foreign fund outflows have further fuelled the rupee’s depreciation.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 85.54 and touched the lowest level of 85.66 against the greenback during intra-day trade. The unit ended the session at 85.65 (provisional) against the dollar, registering a fall of 13 paise over its previous close.

On Monday (December 30, 2024), the rupee dropped 4 paise to 85.52 against the U.S. dollar.

The domestic unit has depreciated against the greenback by almost 3% from 83.16 on December 29, 2023, to 85.65 on December 31, 2024.

The local currency breached the crucial 84-level on October 10, surpassed 85-a-dollar mark on December 19 and even touched the life-time low of 85.80 intraday on December 27, recording the steepest single-day fall in nearly two years.

According to Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, the rupee is expected to trade with a negative bias on elevated crude oil prices, overall strength in the U.S. dollar and month-end dollar demand from importers.

Moreover, persistent selling pressure by foreign funds added further strain on the currency. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded ₹1,893.16 crore in the capital markets on net basis on Monday (December 30, 2024), according to exchange data.

In 2024, foreign investors significantly scaled back their investments in Indian equities, with net inflows amounting to a little over ₹5,000 crore, as elevated domestic valuations, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance.

In 2023, ₹1.71 lakh crore net investment was made in the domestic equity market.

“However, any intervention by the RBI may support the rupee at lower levels. Volumes may remain thin due to the New Year holiday. USD/INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 85.40 to 85.85,” Mr. Choudhary said.

India’s external debt rose to $711.8 billion as of September this year, up 4.3% over June 2024, as per the data released by the Finance Ministry. At the end of September 2023, the external debt stood at $637.1 billion.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.11% at 108.01.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, surged 0.57% to $74.41 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share benchmark index Sensex closed 109.12 points, or 0.14% lower, at 78,139.01 points. The Nifty settled on a flat note at 23,644.80 points.

On the domestic macroeconomic front, India’s current account deficit (CAD) moderated marginally to $11.2 billion or 1.2% of GDP year-on-year in the July-September quarter of 2024-25, according to Reserve Bank data.

The CAD, an indicator of the country’s external payment scenario, was $11.3 billion or 1.3% of GDP during the second quarter of 2023-24.