The southwest monsoon remains subdued in most parts of the State except for parts of North Kerala in the first half of July, which is traditionally considered the wettest month in the four-month southwest monsoon season in Kerala. Though parts of north Kerala and hilly areas have been receiving some isolated heavy spells, the monsoon has been weak over Kerala, especially in central and south Kerala.
According to the extended rain forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), there will be cumulatively below normal rainfall over most parts of Kerala, except northern Kerala, where it will be above normal, till July 18. Different weather models from various agencies forecast temporal evolution of the monsoon trough in terms of its position, extension, and tilt with height varies. Further, the position of the offshore trough that runs off the west coast of the country is not conducive to generating big spells across the State.
Isolated spells
However, north Kerala is likely to benefit from the trough. The latest position of the off-shore trough that runs along the south Gujarat-Kerala coasts, coupled with the cyclonic circulation over the East Central Bay of Bengal, is likely to trigger some isolated spells in north Kerala for the next five days.ย A yellow alert has been issued for seven districts โ Alappuzha, Ernakulam, Thrissur, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Kannur and Kasaragodโ on July 7 (Sunday), and for four districts โ Malappuram, Kozhikode, Kannur and Kasaragod โ on July 8 (Monday) and July 9 (Tuesday), warning of isolated heavy rains.
The monsoon is 26% deficient in Kerala as of July 6 with the State recording 576.2 mm of rainfall against the average of 777.7 mm of rainfall from June 1 to July 6. Similarly, the monsoon is deficient in 10 districts, while it has been normal in four districts so far.
