After a brief lull, the southwest monsoon is likely to be active over the State, especially in central and southern Kerala.
Although the monsoon trough is in its normal position and the offshore trough along the west coast is in sleep mode for Kerala, the monsoon flow into parts of the State is likely to be active in the coming days with atmospheric conditions favouring the formation of an upper cyclonic circulation over southwest Bay of Bengal.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued an orange alert for Palakkad and Malappuram on Sunday warning of very heavy rain, and an yellow alert for Kozhikode, Wayanad and Idukki for isolated heavy rain. Two districts — Pathanamthitta and Idukki — were put on orange alert on Monday, and four districts on Tuesday.
The synoptic conditions are favouring some isolated heavy spells and intense spells across the State, especially in the ghat regions for the next few days. However, there will not be a major surge as the position of monsoon trough and offshore trough, two major features of an active monsoon, is not conducive for generating a relatively long spell, according to IMD sources.
After an intense surge in the last week of July, which brought down the rain deficit across the State to just 4%, the weak monsoon in the first 10 days of August has further increased the rain deficit, which is around 10% now.
The State has received a total of 1,339.2 mm of rainfall as of August 10 against the average of 1,480.8 mm during this period. The monsoon is still deficient in Idukki, Ernakulam, Wayanad, and Alappuzha districts.
