Istanbul: An Israeli airstrike on Hamas leaders in Doha has set off alarm bells in Turkey. Officials in Ankara believe the same playbook could reach Turkish soil.
Turkish Defense Ministry spokesman Rear Adm. Zeki Aktürk warned on Thursday, “Israel would further expand its reckless attacks, as it did in Qatar, and drag the entire region, including its own country, into disaster.”
Israel carried out the attack on Doha, in territory long seen as safe ground, on Tuesday.
Turkey On Edge
The strike unsettled Ankara. Turkey has a long record of backing the Palestinian cause. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan maintains open lines with Hamas. Some Hamas leaders reside in Turkey. Others use its territory for meetings. Israel has accused Turkey of allowing Hamas to recruit and fundraise inside its borders.
The relationship between Ankara and Jerusalem has been fraught for more than a decade. Once close partners, the countries split during the late 2000s. The rift deepened after October 7, 2023, when Hamas fighters stormed Israel, killed about 1,200 people and seized 251 hostages.
Erdoğan has never held back his words. He has accused Israel of genocide. He has compared Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Adolf Hitler and vowed to stand by Hamas as a symbol of Turkish resolve.
Erdogan is presently attending an Arab and Muslim leaders’ summit in Qatar. The summit responds to Israel’s strike in Doha.
Analysts See Bigger Pattern
Regional observers fear the Qatar strike sets a precedent. “Israel’s ability to conduct strikes with seeming impunity, often bypassing regional air defenses and international norms, sets a precedent that deeply worries Ankara,” they said.
They described the strikes as part of a broader plan. Israel, according to them, aims to create “a fragmented buffer zone of weak or pacified states around it”.
Other voices warned of possible smaller attacks. It said an Israeli airstrike on the territory of a NATO member would be extremely unlikely. Still, small-scale bomb or gun attacks on potential Hamas targets in Turkey by Israeli agents could be a distinct possibility.
Regional Fallout
Israel has already struck Iran, Syria and Yemen. Now Qatar has joined the list. Ankara fears Turkey may face pressure as well.
Turkey, unlike Qatar, sits inside NATO. It commands one of the largest militaries in the alliance, second only to the United States. Its defense industry has advanced rapidly.
Erdogan has increased missile production. He unveiled the “Steel Dome” air defense system last month. Work on the KAAN fifth-generation fighter has accelerated.
The analysts said the strike in Doha may push Ankara closer to Hamas. “This resonates with Turkish anxieties that Israel may eventually extend such operations to Turkish territory. The Turkish government calculates that abandoning Hamas now would weaken its regional influence, while standing firm bolsters its role as a defender of Palestinian causes against Israeli aggression,” they said.
Flashpoints In Syria
Experts believe Syria could be the true flashpoint. “To think that targeting Turkish troops or Turkish allies or proxies in Syria would be to go too far is wishful thinking,” they said.
Syrian rebels toppled Bashar al-Assad last December. Ankara backed the rebels. Israel distrusted them. Israel seized a U.N.-monitored buffer zone in southern Syria and launched hundreds of airstrikes on Syrian military sites. It presented itself as a protector of the Druze minority against Sunni authorities in Damascus.
Sectarian clashes in Sweida province escalated tensions. Druze in Israel urged intervention. Israel responded with airstrikes. Jerusalem demanded Syrian authorities withdraw.
The violence echoed massacres of Alawites by security forces, the sect that once formed Assad’s base.
Eastern Mediterranean Risks
The dispute may not stay inside Syria. Tensions could spill into the Mediterranean. Israel could tighten links with Greece and Greek Cypriots. Such a move would directly challenge Turkey’s hold over northern Cyprus.
Ankara Balances War And Diplomacy
Turkey has been building defenses and playing diplomacy. Turkish and Israeli officials met in April. They discussed a “de-escalation mechanism” for Syria. The talks followed Israeli strikes on a Syrian airbase that Turkey planned to use. Netanyahu called such bases a “danger to Israel”.
Last month, Ankara and Damascus signed an agreement. Turkey pledged training and advice for Syrian armed forces.
Erdogan counts on Washington to keep Israel in check. Netanyahu has sought U.S. backing. But President Donald Trump praised Erdogan for “taking over Syria” and told the Israeli prime minister to act “reasonably”.
The Qatar strike has shaken that confidence. “It showed there was no limit to what the Israeli government can do,” the observers said.