Kyiv (Ukraine): Russian forces advanced deeper into Ukraine over the past week, claiming to have captured eight villages along a battlefront stretching 1,250km (780 miles).
“At this time, the Russian armed forces fully hold the strategic initiative,” Russian President Vladimir Putin told military commanders on Tuesday, coinciding with his 73rd birthday.
According to the Russian defence ministry, the towns now under Russian control include Otradnoye in Kharkiv, Mayskoye, Siversk Maly, Kuzminovka and Fedorovka in Donetsk, Verbovoye in Dnipropetrovsk and Novovasylivka and Novohryhorivka in Zaporizhia.
Putin claimed Russian forces have taken nearly 5,000 square kilometres (1,930 square miles) of Ukraine so far this year. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, independently estimated the figure at 3,434 sq km (1,325 sq miles).
Putin also said Russian troops control two-thirds of Kupiansk, a city in northern Kharkiv. The ISW estimated Russian occupation at 14 percent of the city.
Despite the claims, Russia’s gains represent less than 1 percent of Ukraine and have come at a heavy human cost.
Russian Troop Losses
On Monday, the Ukrainian government initiative ‘I Want to Live’, which offers Russian soldiers safe passage if they surrender, reported that 281,550 Russian soldiers were killed, wounded or missing in action in the first eight months of 2025, citing leaked military documents.
Of these, 86,744 were confirmed killed, while almost 34,000 were missing and possibly dead.
The losses are comparable to those suffered by Russian forces that overran Poland and Prussia in 1939, the initiative said, but “modern Russian generals have been unable to capture Pokrovsk for several years”.
With a pre-war population of 60,000, Pokrovsk has been under Russian assault for over a year. Russian forces also tried to capture Dobropillia, 17km (11 miles) northwest of Pokrovsk, but were repelled.
Ukraine claimed Russia lost 178 sq km (69 sq miles) and at least 3,500 personnel since the end of August.
Both Russia and Ukraine rarely release exact figures of casualties.
The Air War Intensifies
From October 2 to 8, Moscow launched 1,523 drones and 93 missiles into Ukrainian airspace, targeting major cities behind the front line.
Five people died on Saturday after nearly 500 drones distracted air defences, allowing a ballistic missile and 13 cruise missiles through. Two nights earlier, another large combined strike took place.
“We managed to shoot down only half of the missiles,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Ukraine destroyed over 10,000 missiles and drones in September alone. Analysts highlighted that ballistic missiles, with their terminal speed, are difficult to intercept. Patriot missiles have historically destroyed many of them, but in recent weeks, the interception rate has dropped. Kyiv stopped 1 of 14 and 3 of 21 incoming missiles in September.
Financial Times reported that ballistic missile interception fell from 37 percent in August to 6 percent in October. Regional experts suggested that Ukraine might be conserving interceptors and that Russia could have learned the locations of Ukraine’s Patriot systems, targeting gaps.
Russia Targets Ukraine’s Gas Facilities
Ahead of winter, Russia attacked Ukrainian gas infrastructure, including Naftogaz, the state energy company. “A significant portion of our facilities has been damaged. Some of the destruction is critical,” said Naftogaz CEO Sergii Koretskyi.
Ukraine plans to increase gas imports by 30 percent this winter, said Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk. Zelenskyy instructed electricity companies to stock backup equipment against future attacks.
Ukraine Strikes Back
Ukraine intensified its aerial campaign, targetting Russian fuel and industrial capacity.
Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, reported that up to 38 percent of Russia’s refining capacity was disabled at certain points in September. Russian gasoline imports from Belarus quadrupled to 49,000 tonnes, and diesel to 33,000 tonnes.
“Fuel production decreased by one million tonnes, and the deficit reached 20 percent of domestic needs,” said Kovalenko, adding that “China, which receives Russian oil at a 40 percent discount, sells gasoline back with a 40 percent markup. As a result, Moscow loses on both fronts”.
Ukrainian drones struck Kirishinefteorgsintez Oil Refinery near Leningrad for the third time this year. Two days later, a refinery in Bryansk region was hit. The Sverdlov Plant, one of Russia’s largest explosives manufacturers, was also targeted.
Ukraine hit the Feodosia oil terminal in Crimea and the Tuapse refinery across the Black Sea, as well as Tyumen Refinery, 2,000km (1,240 miles) east of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Domestic Defence Production
Ukraine uses low-cost drones to reach deep targets. Defence production has increased to $20bn this year, a tenfold rise since 2022. Zelenskyy encouraged Western investment, offering joint ventures.
“Our production potential for drones and missiles alone will reach $35bn next year,” he said at the International Defence Industries Forum in Kyiv.
Tomahawks And Diplomacy
US President Donald Trump has considered Ukraine’s request for Tomahawk missiles with a 2,500km range.
Russia signalled peace prospects were shrinking. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said efforts were being “largely exhausted by the activities of opponents and supporters of the war”, primarily Europeans.
Since Trump’s election, Russia has portrayed him as a reasonable interlocutor and European allies as obstacles to peace. Putin warned that supplying Tomahawks would harm relations.
“This will lead to the destruction of our relations, or at least the positive trends that have emerged in these relations,” he said.
Trump told White House reporters, “I am not looking to escalate that war.”
Reports on October 1 from Reuters and The Wall Street Journal indicated that the United States would provide Ukraine with intelligence for strikes deep inside Russia, raising further concern in Moscow.
Russian forces advance on the ground. Ukraine hits faraway targets. Missile interceptions decline. Energy infrastructure suffers. Diplomatic tension simmers. The war continues to stretch across the continent, leaving each side calculating losses, gains and the long road ahead.