London: Questions are growing about the political survival of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Polls suggest his approval ratings are extremely low.
In July 2024, Starmer led the Labour Party to a landslide election victory. The party won 411 seats in the House of Commons, a majority of 174. Many expected it to govern for at least two terms.
However, recent surveys indicate rising public discontent. Previously seen as a protest party, reform is now polling strongly ahead of the next general election, fuelled by concerns over the economy and immigration.
The Sunday Times MRP survey lists Starmer as the most unpopular UK prime minister recorded.
Former Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has hinted at a potential leadership challenge. Starmer could face removal before the next scheduled election in 2029. An early election remains a possibility.
The biggest thing that he promised was change. That was literally his campaign slogan. But nothing changed much. Wages are rising higher than inflation, but it does not feel like it for many people. People say though he is not the worst PM ever, he failed to manage expectations before he got elected.
Starmer’s challenges fall into three categories: practical issues, optics and scandals.
Corruption concerns property taxes linked to him and former deputy Angela Rayner. He purchased a field behind his parents’ house for £20,000 ($27,000) and later sold it for £300,000 ($400,000). Uncertainty remains over whether he paid the proper taxes. Starmer maintains he did.
The Labour Party has also struggled with business confidence. Increased National Insurance contributions for employers have prompted job cuts in sectors such as hospitality. Unemployment is rising while vacancies decline.
Starmer’s ratings are extraordinary and his unpopularity is unremittingly bad. The public seems to have largely forgotten the circumstances that brought Starmer to power.
Undocumented immigration remains a pressing issue. Housing promises are delayed. The Labour Party aims to build 1.5 million homes by 2029. Planning approvals fell to record lows this year.
Starmer is facing discontent from multiple directions. Some Labour members view him as insufficiently Left-wing. Business groups consider him too Left-leaning. Voters see a lack of progress on immigration. Reform, led by Nigel Farage, is now polling 12 points ahead of the party.
Incoming U.S. investment deals worth £150 billion ($200 billion) have not offset economic concerns. The manufacturing output is contracting, demands are falling and there are high wage pressures.
Experts argue the Labour came into power prepared to win but not to govern. Negative narratives have solidified even in areas where they may be unjustified.
Starmer is not helped by the fact that there is an obvious successor in Andy Burnham. What is against him is that he won on a Tory collapse, not a Labour revival. That is bearing out now. There was no definition to where he was going. There was no great story to sell. He needs something to bind people together and something they are aiming towards. And there is not. What is Starmerism? They have not defined that.
NatWest Bank Chairman Rick Haythornthwaite wrote in the Financial Times that this is a difficult time for any politician. Leaders do not have time to bed down. The political system is fracturing. The idea that Farage could win a majority is no longer absurd.