New Delhi: As the United States tightens trade pressure on India in the wake of the Ukraine war, speculation is rising about whether cutting off Russian oil sales to New Delhi could push President Vladimir Putin toward peace. The facts on the ground, however, tell a different story.
A day after Washington imposed a sharp 50% tariff on Indian exports, President Trump’s top trade advisor Peter Navarro claimed that India’s oil trade with Russia was indirectly fueling the war. “The road to peace runs at least partly right through New Delhi,” Navarro told Bloomberg TV.
He argued that profits from oil sold by Indian refiners, many in partnership with Russian suppliers, were helping Moscow fund its military campaign in Ukraine.
India has pushed back strongly. Calling the U.S. rationale “perplexing”, Indian officials reaffirmed the country’s energy policy. “We have clearly stated that our objective is the energy security of 1.4 billion people of India,” India’s Ambassador to Moscow Vinay Kumar told Russian news agency TASS.
The tariff hike is seen by Washington as a tool of “economic leverage” designed to isolate Russia. US Vice President J.D. Vance said the decision to target India was part of President Donald Trump’s strategy to make it harder for Moscow to “get rich from their oil economy”.
This approach has drawn criticism in New Delhi. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said the tariffs were “unjustified” and pointed to Washington’s past support for India’s Russian oil imports as a stabilising force in global markets.
“I am very perplexed,” Jaishankar said, highlighting that similar scrutiny has not been applied to China, the largest importer of Russian oil or to major European LNG buyers.
India imports over 85% of its oil. Often sold at discounted prices, Russian crude plays a vital role in keeping its energy bills manageable.
Analysts say New Delhi is unlikely to scale back purchases. “India has to decide whether ceasing to buy cheap oil from Russia is worth the hit that American tariffs will entail,” said Nandan Unnikrishnan, a senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
Data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air shows that since 2022, China has accounted for 47% of Russia’s crude exports, while India has taken 38%.
Other buyers include Turkey and the European Union. For refined products and LNG, Europe has actually been the largest market.
Given these figures, any halt in Indian imports would not cut Moscow off from global revenue streams. Nor is Russia likely to soften its stance under economic pressure. “From a Russian perspective, they are fighting an existential threat. Putin may indeed agree to a ceasefire, but only if it suits Russia’s interests. He is very much in the driver’s seat,” said Unnikrishnan.
Despite three years of war and Western sanctions that have dented its economy, Russia continues to advance on the battlefield. Ukraine faces growing shortages of manpower and ammunition. That military edge gives Moscow less incentive to compromise, especially if alternative markets continue to absorb its oil.
In nut shell, tariffs may strain India-US trade ties, but they are unlikely to shift the course of the war in Ukraine or change the calculus in the Kremlin.