New Delhi: Pakistan’s Navy has issued a fresh Notice to Mariners (NOTMAR), setting off a wave of speculation across the region. The alert comes days after India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi warned Pakistan against any misadventure near Sir Creek. Analysts in Islamabad say the naval alert could be a sign that Pakistan is preparing for a larger operation in the Arabian Sea.
Political commentator Qamar Cheema told local media that the NOTMAR might relate to a “major naval exercise”, a routine move to warn ships of possible firing or missile testing. He said the timing is significant. “We often saw India issue such NOTAMs or NOTMARs when it planned air or sea exercises. Now Pakistan’s Navy has issued one, which means something big is happening in its waters,” he said.
According to him, the Pakistani Navy has intensified its mobilisation in recent days. He stated that large-scale ship movements, firing drills and missile tests often follow such alerts. “When exercises happen, there is firing, and ships move in big numbers. The NOTMAR simply means: do not mistake it for something else,” he said.
Missile Test Raises Eyebrows
The speculation comes after Pakistan tested its Fateh-4 missile, a surface-to-surface weapon with an estimated range of 750 kilometres. Cheema said the test was intended to demonstrate capability and deliver a message to India. “The Fateh-4’s range shows how significant it is,” he said, adding that the missile represents a step forward in Pakistan’s ongoing defence buildup.
Pakistan had earlier tested Fateh-1 and Fateh-2 missiles during past confrontations with India. The new Fateh-4, analysts say, extends the strike radius deep into Indian territory.
However, experts also point out that Pakistan’s missile programme has struggled to match India’s advanced systems such as the S-400 air defence and Rafale fighter jets.
Naval Buildup And India’s Warning
Cheema suggested that the naval buildup could be linked to fears that India might target Karachi or other coastal installations. He said Pakistan appears focussed on securing its economic assets and energy export routes, which are vital to its economy.
“India’s defence minister said the Navy will be used, and he mentioned that the Sir Creek route leads to Karachi. That is not a normal statement,” he said.
On October 2, during the Vijayadashami celebrations in Gujarat’s Bhuj, Singh had issued a warning, “If Pakistan commits any act of aggression in Sir Creek, we will change both its history and geography.”
He had stressed that Indian forces and the Border Security Force (BSF) are fully prepared to defend every inch of Indian territory.
Targeting Economic Hubs?
According to Cheema, Pakistan’s military may view India’s economic centres as possible targets in any future conflict. He recalled a recent statement from Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), which hinted at a shift in strategy toward striking “east or economic centres”.
He also said discussions inside Pakistan’s defence circles include war-game scenarios involving attacks on refineries and export terminals, facilities that are already under global scrutiny for handling oil supplies, including imports from Russia. “In war games, these are the things that get discussed,” he highlighted.
Rising Tension In The Arabian Sea
Indian defence analysts say the latest developments must be watched carefully. They believe the NOTMAR could be a precursor to large naval drills, but the mix of missile tests and high-pitched rhetoric increases the chance of miscalculation.
Experts in New Delhi say the Indian Navy is on alert but unlikely to expose its aircraft carriers or key assets unnecessarily. “In any conflict, both sides target each other’s strongest capabilities,” one senior analyst said, referring to India’s advanced air defence and naval strike systems.
For now, there is no confirmation that the Pakistan’s Navy is preparing for live missile firing. Officially, the NOTMAR has been described as a “routine exercise” notice. But the combination of a missile test, strong public statements and heightened naval movements has created an atmosphere of unease across South Asia’s waters.
Observers say both sides are engaged in signalling. The coming days, they warn, will determine whether this signalling remains symbolic or turns into a test of nerves between two nuclear-armed neighbours.