Patna: The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has finalised its seat-sharing deal in Bihar ahead of the 2025 assembly elections. Late on October 12, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) reached an agreement to contest an equal number of seats (101 each).
Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) or LJP(R) has been given 29 seats, while Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) will contest on six seats each.
This deal carries a clear political message. It reflects the NDA’s strategy for the Bihar contest. Here are five key takeaways from this seat-sharing arrangement:
1. Seat Division Mirrors The 2024 Lok Sabha Pattern
This pact is apparently based on the 2024 Lok Sabha results, where the BJP contested 17 seats, the JD(U) 16, the LJP(R) 5 and the HAM and the RLM one each.
Bihar has 40 Lok Sabha and 243 assembly seats. Roughly, one parliamentary constituency includes six assembly segments.
By that measure, the BJP’s share translates to 17×6 = 102 seats. It has received 101, just one less. The JD(U)’s 16×6 = 96 translates into 101, five more. The LJP(R) could have claimed 30 but got 29. The HAM and the RLM have both received six, matching their Lok Sabha proportion.
2. Nitish Contests On The Fewest Seats In Two Decades
The JD(U) came into being in October 2003. Except for 2015, the Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s party has always contested more seats than the BJP within the NDA. For the first time in 20 years, both will fight an equal number.
This marks a new phase in the alliance. There is no larger or smaller partner now. If the BJP secures more seats, it will naturally become the leading force within the coalition.
3. Chirag’s Return Pushes NDA’s Vote Base Above 44.6%
In 2020, the NDA bagged 125 seats with 37.9% votes. The Mahagathbandhan (a coalition of the Rashtriya Janata Dal or RJD, the Congress and Left parties) followed closely with 110 seats and 37.8% votes.
Chirag’s LJP(R) had then contested independently, winning one seat but drawing 5.8% votes. His return to the NDA lifts the combined vote share.
If the 2020 figures are combined, the BJP (19.8%), the JD(U) (15.7%), the HAM (1.5%), the LJP(R) (5.8%) and the RLM (1.8%) together total 44.6%. In Bihar’s last four assembly elections, any alliance crossing 37% has formed the government.
The NDA’s traditional base has been upper castes and non-Yadav OBCs. With Chirag and Manjhi, Mahadalit voters add to this mix, strengthening the alliance’s social reach and its electoral footing.
4. Power Balance Within NDA Tilts Toward BJP
The new formula reflects the BJP’s growing control within the NDA. Equal footing for the JD(U) and the allocation of 29 seats to the LJP(R) highlight this.
Chirag has often called himself Modi’s ‘Hanuman’. Manjhi has pledged to stand with Modi “as long as he breathes”.” Kushwaha’s nomination to the Rajya Sabha came with BJP’s support.
Chirag’s differences with Nitish are well known. His political comfort lies with Modi. The 29 seats given to his party can, in practice, be seen as an extension of BJP’s influence.
The BJP appears to be gradually reducing Nitish’s space within the alliance. By strengthening smaller allies, it prepares for a post-poll setup where it can lead the government. The signal is clear: the BJP aims to head the next government.
5. Nitish Needs 50 Seats To Stay Relevant As Kingmaker
Scenario 1: BJP repeats its 2020 performance
In 2020, the BJP contested 110 seats and won 74. A majority in the 243-member assembly requires 122 MLAs. The BJP then needed 48 more, which only Nitish could provide. But if in 2025 the BJP contests 101 and wins around 74 again, the situation will change.
Allies together are contesting 41 seats. If they win 20, the BJP would need only 28 more MLAs to reach the majority mark, a target within reach, as seen in Goa and Meghalaya.
In 2017 Goa, the BJP won 13 of 40 seats and still formed the government, while Congress, with 17 seats, stayed out of power. In 2018 Meghalaya, the BJP won two seats but formed the government with its partners.
Scenario 2: Nitish wins fewer than 50 seats
To remain kingmaker, Nitish’s JD(U) must win at least 50 seats. Past elections highlight this. In 2015, he won 71 seats with the RJD and led the government. In 2017, he allied with the BJP, which had 53 seats, taking the total to 124, crossing the majority.
In 2020, Nitish won 43 and the RJD 75. Their 2022 reunion still fell short by four seats, requiring the support of the Congress and Left parties.
This time, the NDA seat plan has been managed entirely by the BJP. With 101 for the BJP, 101 for the JD(U) and 41 for allies, the BJP controls the overall arrangement. Except for the JD(U), the other three allies remain closely aligned with it.
Out of 243 seats, the BJP directly or indirectly influences 142.
If the JD(U) wins below 50, Nitish’s ability to steer the alliance weakens. Leaving the NDA in such a situation could also create unrest within his party.
Scenario 3: Nitish repeats his Lok Sabha lead over BJP
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA led in more than two-thirds of assembly segments, around 176 seats. The JD(U) led in 74, the BJP in 68, the LJP(R) in 29 and the HAM in 5. The RLM did not lead anywhere.
If the JD(U) maintains its 74-seat strength, the BJP without it would fall to 102, 20 short of a majority. Even with Congress’s 12 seats and VIP’s one, the BJP would still be short of seven MLAs. In such a case, Nitish remains central to government formation. If the Lok Sabha pattern continues, the BJP cannot form a government without the JD(U).
The Final Reading
This seat-sharing agreement sets a calculated tone for Bihar’s 2025 election. The BJP has balanced its partners while keeping control of the coalition.
Nitish’s influence depends on whether he crosses the 50-seat mark. Chirag’s return and the 44.6% combined vote base add weight to the NDA’s position.
Bihar’s politics, however, runs on more than numbers. Equations of trust and leadership decide outcomes. This time too, that balance may determine who truly leads the NDA.