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The story so far: On July 15, Rwanda held its fourth presidential election since the 1994 Tutsi genocide. Partial results released by Rwanda’s National Electoral Commission (NEC) reveal overwhelming support for President Paul Kagame. With 79% of the votes counted, Kagame has secured over 99% of the votes. Opposition leaders Habineza Frank of the Democratic Green Party and Independent candidate Mpayimana Phillippe secured less than one per cent of the votes each.
How did Rwanda politically progress?
On 6 April, 1994, Rwanda’s Hutu President Juvenal Habyarimana was killed in a plane crash, allegedly by the Tutsi-led armed group, the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF). Between April 7 and July 15, 1994, the state-sponsored Hutu armed group massacred over 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus in revenge attacks.
In 1994, the RPF defeated Rwanda’s government, ended the genocide and restored law and order. The RPF took control of Rwanda and established a transitional government of both Hutus and Tutsis, which ruled from 1994 to 1995. Between 1996 and 2002, Rwanda’s leadership was preoccupied with fighting Hutu armed groups in the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and could not prioritise nation building.
In 2003, Rwanda adopted a new Constitution and became a semi-presidential republic. The same year, multi-party elections were held for the first time. Kagame was elected as Rwanda’s President. Under his leadership, the RPF rapidly consolidated power, winning landslide majorities since 2003. In 2015, the government amended the constitution through a referendum, enabling Kagame to rule till 2034 and strengthening the RPF’s dominance.
What has been the role of Kagame?
A U.S.-trained military officer of Tutsi ethnicity, Kagame joined the RPF in 1990. As the RPF’s leader, Kagame led the armed group to end the genocide. Between 1994 and 2000, he was Rwanda’s de facto leader, first as Vice President and then as Acting President.
According to Rwanda’s Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, the economy grew by over eight per cent annually under Kagame’s leadership. Between 2000 and 2017, his targeted social welfare schemes lifted over one million people out of poverty, while life expectancy rose from 29 to 67 years. However, Western observers criticised his government as authoritarian for suppressing opposition forces and civil liberties. In 2024, Freedom House accused his government of surveillance, torture, arbitrary detentions, and assassinations of dissents.
What were the issues before Rwanda’s July 2024 elections?
According to the South African Broadcasting Corporation and Al Jazeera, Rwanda’s impressive development record under Kagame was crucial in the 2024 elections, attracting young and first-time voters to the RPF. During his massive rallies, Kagame promised to continue Rwanda’s economic performance and equitable growth, which resonated with the youth’s aspirations for upward mobility.
Women’s empowerment was another vital election issue, with women voters appreciating Kagame’s role in increasing women’s representation in the country’s legislative assembly, the Chamber of Deputies (60% in 2023) and their participation in the labour force (55% in 2023 according to the World Bank).
Civil society organisations raised concerns about political pluralism before the elections. During May-June, the National Election Commission barred opposition leaders and outspoken Kagame critics Victoire Ingabire and Diane Rwigara from contesting for sowing “divisionism” and inadequate paperwork. According to Reporters Without Borders (RSF), the government imprisoned around 20 journalists since 2000 on unlawful grounds. These developments reflected the country’s declining democratic credentials. Since Kagame held the elections after banning multiple opposition groups, civil society organisations said the election was unfair because voters did not have a genuine choice of alternative candidates. The ongoing civil war in the DRC was another pressing issue, with the DRC and the United Nations accusing Rwanda of supporting the M23 armed group.
What do the election results convey?
Kagame’s victory conveys wide-ranging support for his programmes of economic progress and political stability. Given that Rwanda is still a developing country, Kagame’s campaign resonated with the electorate’s aspirations for economic freedom and reaffirmed his successful record of providing the stability needed for development.
Kagame’s victory demonstrates the effectiveness of his party machinery, with opposition candidates struggling to draw crowds. However, Kagame was virtually unchallenged, with opposition candidates receiving one per cent of votes combined, reflecting the RPF’s efforts to suppress genuine political competition. The suppression of the candidates also reflected Kagame’s authoritarian tendencies. The pro-government decisions of the National Election Commission reflected the absence of robust democratic institutions.
Does the Rwanda election hold any significance for Africa’s democratic process?
South Africa, Senegal, Chad, and Rwanda have completed their general elections, others are heading to the polls. While South Africa and Senegal had free and fair elections, polls in Chad and Rwanda saw incumbents controlling opposition forces.
While Rwanda enjoys an impressive developmental record, its authoritarian tendencies and democratic deficits reflect the larger African trends of democratic backsliding and electoral malpractices. Since the RPF was initially an armed group that became the country’s ruling party, its political dominance reflects the persistent issue of militarisation of civilian politics that affects African states like Gabon and Guinea. Kagame’s victory will mark continued political stability, but its military involvement in the DRC will contribute to regional instability.
(Ayan Datta is a research intern at the Africa Studies programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies and is pursuing a post-graduate degree at the University of Hyderabad)
