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Earlier in July, immediately after Prime Minister Modi wrapped up a bilateral summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, since first visit to Russia since the Ukraine war began in february 2022, the U.S.’s Ambassador in India made a rare public criticism of India’s Russia policy. “There is no such thing as strategic autonomy in times of conflict; we will, in crisis moments, need to know each other,” Ambassador Eric Garcetti said. In Washington DC, the State Department also expressed “concerns” over India’s ties with Russia, while National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan warned India of Russia’s deepening partnership with China. Public comments did not end there. On July 23, almost two weeks after Mr. Modi’s Russia visit, Donald Lu, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, told lawmakers at a Congressional hearing in Washington that the U.S. was “disappointed” about the symbolism and timing of Mr. Modi’s visit.
The overall trajectory of India’s strategic partnership with the U.S. seems steady. Many U.S. policymakers see the partnership with India as one of the most consequential bilateral relationships of the U.S. in the 21st century. They also see an economically growing, democratic India as an effective bulwark against the Communist Party-ruled China. In India, economic, defence and strategic partnership with the U.S. is seen as critical for the country’s continued rise as a major Asian power. But the disagreements lie in the details. India’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its decision to ramp up energy trade with Moscow after it was sanctioned by the West did not go down well with Washington. Russia, cut off from the Western markets, found an economic lifeline in its booming trade with China and India, the world’s second and fifth largest economies, respectively.
In recent years, the India-U.S. partnership saw stress points in other areas as well. Indian nationals were accused of killing Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Khalistan separatist, in Canada last year. The U.S. government has also sought accountability from the Indian government over a plot to kill Sikh separatist leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in New York. An Indian national is now in jail in the U.S. in connection with the case. India has denied any role in these incidents, but allegations have added to tensions in bilateral relations. And Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Russia, on the eve of a NATO summit in Washington whose main agenda was to strengthen Ukraine against the Russian invasion, seemed to have “disturbed” the Biden administration, as a Washington Post report claimed.
In its response, India’s Ministry of External Affairs said it values its strategic autonomy. “India, like many other countries, values its strategic autonomy. The U.S. Ambassador is entitled to his opinion. Obviously, we have different views,” MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said. “Our comprehensive global strategic partnership with the U.S. gives us the space to agree to disagree on certain issues, while respecting each other’s view-points,” he added.
What’s strategic autonomy, which India is fiercely protective about? “A simple definition of the concept is that countries should be able to make decisions that best serve their national interests, irrespective of the pulls and pressures from other parties,” I wrote in this July 19 Oped in The Hindu. And why is it significant for India? Watch the latest episode of Realpolitik, our video explainer column: What’s strategic autonomy and why is it important for India? | Realpolitik.
‘Victory for Maduro’
Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela’s President who claims to be a successor of Chavismo, the socialist ideology championed by the late, charismatic President, Hugo Chavez, “won” a third consecutive term in Sunday’s election, according to Venezuela’s election authorities. Mr. Maduro, a former bus driver-tuned-politician, won 51% of the vote, while his main rival Edmundo Gonzalez garnered 44%. Before the vote, opinion polls had stated that Mr. Maduro, who rose to power after Chavez died of cancer in 2013, was trailing. And he had warned of a civil war and bloodbath if he lost the election. Mr. Gonzalez was not the opposition’s original pick against Mr. Maduro. Maria Corina Machado, arguably the most popular opposition leader who won the opposition primaries, was disqualified by the Supreme Court for supporting another opposition figure Juan Guaido’s rebellion against Mr. Maduro.
On Mr. Maduro’s watch, Venezuela’s economy, also battered by U.S. sanctions, contracted by 80% in 10 years. According to UNHCR, more than 7.7 million Venezuelans fled the country in a decade. In 2013, when Chanez passed away, Venezuela had a household poverty rate of 33.1% and extreme poverty at 11.4%, down from 61.5% and 30%, respectively, in 2003. In 10 years, the figures jumped to 82% and 53%, respectively. In other words, Mr. Maduro oversaw the total collapse of Venezuela’s economy. And he still managed to “win’ another term, extending his rule for six more years. What’s Maduro’s politics and how did he emerge as a strong man? Read this profile of the Venezuelan leader, written by my colleague Srinivasan Ramani: Nicolas Maduro | Chavism’s designated successor.
Sri Lanka to hold elections
Sri Lanka’s presidential elections will be held on September 21, the Election Commission announced on July 26. Some 17 million voters will have their first chance of electing the country’s leader, after a mass people’s uprising ousted former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa two years ago. President Ranil Wickremesinghe was among the first to formally get into the fray. His office announced making a cash deposit at the Commission for his candidacy as an independent, although he has relied on the Rajapaksas’ Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP or People’s Front) since his rise to Presidency through an urgent parliamentary vote, after Mr. Gotabaya’s resignation, reports Meera Srinivasan, from Colombo.
The Top Five
1. The ‘geo-calculus’ of the Moscow visit
There was one clear message — of the sure bet the Narendra Modi government has placed on India-Russia ties, writes Suhasini Haidar.
2. The importance of both Quad and BRICS
With India being the only country common to both Quad and BRICS and a founding member of both, it cannot afford to downplay one for the other, writes retired diplomat T.S. Tirumurti.
3. Between a fascist past and Right-wing present, Italy is fighting its many battles
Bursting at its seams with immigrants from the Global South and with a Right-wing government in power, Italy under Meloni finds itself in the eye of the identity politics storm; what complicates the matter further is the country’s perception as being on the wrong side of the not-so-long-ago history, Nishtha Gautam reports from Rome.
4. A new push in the Bay of Bengal
The intent of BIMSTEC member states to push forth with a bold vision for the region was evident at the 2nd Foreign Ministers’ Retreat, write Harsh V Pant and Sohini Bose.
5. Special relationship: On U.S. policy on Israel
The welcome Mr. Netanyahu received at Congress shows that he has the support of the elites. But the protest on the streets and the dissenting voices even among lawmakers suggest that the national consensus on Israel is eroding in the U.S., The Hindu writes in this editorial.
