After three weeks of fighting, Russia is still struggling to dislodge Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region, a surprisingly slow and low-key response to the first occupation of its territory since the Second World War.
It all comes down to Russian manpower and Russian priorities. With the bulk of its military pressing offensives inside Ukraine, the Kremlin appears to lack enough reserves for now to drive out Kyiv’s forces.
President Vladimir Putin does not seem to view the attack as a grave enough threat to warrant pulling troops from eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, his priority target.
“Putin’s focus is on the collapse of the Ukrainian state, which he believes will automatically render any territorial control irrelevant,” wrote Tatiana Stanovaya, senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
Months after launching the full-scale invasion in 2022, Mr. Putin illegally annexed the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as part of Russian territory, and their full capture has been a top priority. He declared in June that Kyiv must withdraw its forces from parts of those regions it controls as a condition for peace talks, a demand that Ukraine rejects.
Slow advance
Even as Ukrainian forces pushed into Kursk on August 6, Russian troops continued their slow advance around the strategic city of Pokrovsk and other parts of the Donetsk area.
“Russia is very keen on continuing the attacks toward Pokrovsk and not taking resources away from Pokrovsk to Kursk,” said Nico Lange, senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis.
Unlike Pokrovsk, where Ukrainian forces have built extensive fortifications, other parts of Donetsk still under Ukrainian control are less protected and could be significantly more vulnerable to the Russian onslaught if Pokrovsk falls.
Speaking about Kursk in televised meetings with officials, Mr. Putin described the incursion as an attempt by Kyiv to slow the Russian campaign in Donetsk, where he said the Russian advance only has accelerated despite events in Kursk.
Focused on capturing Ukraine’s four regions, Mr. Putin has sought to attach little importance to Kyiv’s foray into Kursk.
Faced with the reality of the occupation of Russia’s territory, the state propaganda machine has sought to distract attention from the obvious military failure by focusing on government efforts to help over 1,30,000 residents displaced from their homes.
State-controlled media cast the attack on Kursk as evidence of Kyiv’s aggressive intentions and more proof that Russia was justified in invading Ukraine .
Ms. Stanovaya noted that while many Kursk residents could be angry at the Kremlin, the overall nationwide sentiment could actually favour the authorities.
“While it is certainly a blow to the Kremlin’s reputation, it is unlikely to spark a significant rise in social or political discontent among the population,” she said. “The Ukrainian attack might actually lead to a rallying around the flag and a rise in anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western sentiments.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said the push into the Kursk region is meant to create a buffer zone to impede Russian attacks. His chief military officer, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Kyiv’s forces control nearly 1,300 square kilometres and about 100 settlements in the region, a claim that could not be independently verified.
Observers say Russia does not have enough well-coordinated resources to chase the Ukrainian forces in Kursk.
Until the Kursk incursion, Mr. Putin has refrained from using conscripts in the war to avoid a public backlash. Young conscripts drafted for a compulsory one-year tour of duty have served away from the front, and those deployed to protect the border in the Kursk region became easy prey for Ukraine’s battle-hardened mechanised infantry units.
Commentators observed that Mr. Putin also is reluctant to call up more reservists, fearing domestic destabilisation like what happened when he ordered a highly unpopular mobilisation of 3,00,000 in response to a Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2022.
Since then, the Kremlin has bolstered its forces in Ukraine with volunteers attracted by relatively high wages, but that flow has ebbed in recent months.
It would take tens of thousands of troops to fully dislodge the Ukrainian force that used the region’s dense forests as cover.
Clearly lacking resources for such a massive operation, Russia for now has focused on stemming deeper Ukrainian advances by sealing roads and targeting Kyiv’s reserves — tactics that have been partially successful.
Logistics disrupted
Ukraine, meanwhile, has confounded the Russian military by destroying bridges across the Seym River, disrupting logistics for some Russian units in the region and creating conditions for establishing a pocket of control.
By capturing a chunk of Russian territory, Ukraine has embarrassed the Kremlin and reshaped the battlefield. But diverting some of the country’s most capable forces from the east is a gamble for Kyiv.
An attempt to create a foothold in Kursk would further extend the more than 1,000-kilometre frontline, adding to the challenges faced by the undermanned and outgunned Ukrainian forces. Defending positions inside Russia would raise serious logistical problems, with the extended supply lines becoming easy targets.
“The Russian system is very hierarchical and stiff, so it always takes them a significant amount of time to adapt to a new situation,” Mr. Lange said, “but we will have to see how Ukraine can sustain there, once Russia has adapted and comes with full force.”
