The battleground States that could decide the U.S. Presidential elections | Data

US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaking on March 26, 2024, in Raleigh, North Carolina; and former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaking in Atlanta, Georgia, on June 27, 2024
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The battle lines for the U.S. presidential elections were drawn when Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Tim Walz were announced as the Democratic Party’s nominees for President and Vice President, respectively. They will face the Republican Party’s nominees, former President Donald Trump and his running mate, J.D. Vance. As of now, according to opinion polls, Ms. Harris has a three-plus point lead on average over Mr. Trump.

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In the U.S., it is not enough for the candidate to win the popular vote in percentage terms. They have to win the electoral college, a group of presidential electors from each State whose number is determined by the population of the State. The electoral college consists of 538 electors and the candidate requires a majority of 270 votes to become President. Large States such as California, Texas, New York, and Florida, for example, provide 55, 38, 29, and 29 electoral college votes each.

In this first article of a series of articles on the U.S. elections, we will look at ‘battleground States’ or ‘swing States’.

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The maps show how each State voted in elections since 2000. States that were won by the two parties by more than 5% points are marked (red for Republican and blue for Democrats). The larger the difference in vote shares between the parties, the deeper the shades of colours (dark red for more Republican votes and dark blue for more Democrat votes).

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Since 2016, when Mr. Trump made his electoral foray, the starkness in the support base of the two parties has been more pronounced than ever before. States that are largely rural, have a substantial number of religiously minded voters, are less racially diverse, and have a large white-working class population tend to vote Republican, while Democrats receive substantive support from States with a significant urban population, a diverse demography, and a considerable number of college-educated voters.

There are some States with a mix of urban and rural voters and a diverse demography; these are the swing States where there is intense competition between the two parties. Some swing States, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, are from the ‘Rust Belt’ — i.e., they were industrialised but have seen industrial decline and relative urban decay since. Some others, such as Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina in the south-east and Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico in the west/south-west, are from the ‘Sun Belt’ — i.e., they have a warm climate. Swing States are marked with a yellowish tinge. Since 2016, these States have moved decisively towards the Republican Party.

Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump need victories in a definite combination of swing States in the two Belts to win elections. If the swing States are not included and the two parties’ strongholds are expected to vote for them, the Democrats and Republicans would have 221 and 189 electoral votes, respectively.

The opinion polls show a close race in the swing States (Table 1). If the polling averages hold true in these States, the electoral college votes would break 292-246 in favour of the Democrats. But the margins between the two parties are very close. If one of the Rust Belt States (say, Pennsylvania) and one of the Sun Belt States (say, Georgia) provide more votes to Mr. Trump than Ms. Harris, the electoral numbers would be 281-257 in favour of the Republicans.

The table shows the latest polling averages for Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump in the swing States (as of August 31)

As the election gets closer, the two parties will focus on campaigning in these States. In forthcoming articles, we will look into the two parties’ support bases and how they have changed over time.

Source: Nate Silver’s substack, historical electoral data from various sources

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