Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
| Photo Credit: AP
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Last year, the much-awaited counteroffensive Ukraine had launched in the east and the south failed to make any breakthrough. Earlier this year, the Russians launched their offensives towards multiple directions in north-eastern and eastern Ukraine, making incremental progress. In July, when Ukraine was under heavy pressure on the battlefield, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, the country’s top military commander, gathered a secret meeting of his top officers to disclose an ambitious plan. In the meeting, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal, Gen. Syrsky told his officers that Ukraine would take the war straight to Russia. If in the 2023 spring, Ukraine tried to cut through (and failed) some of the most fortified Russian defensive lines on the frontline, this time, Gen. Syrsky’s plan was to hit the weak underbelly of the Russian bear–attack the thinly protected Kursk region. On August 6, Ukrainian troops crossed the border and sprang a surprise attack in the first major land invasion of the Russian mainland since the end of the Second World War. In the subsequent weeks, Ukrainian troops captured hundreds of square kilometres of Russian territory, dealing a blow to President Vladimir Putin’s image. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, his troops would hold the territory they had captured for the foreseeable future.
The incursion was a morale booster for the Ukrainian troops who had been battered on the frontline and had suffered back-to-back setbacks. The territories Ukrainian troops captured also provide a buffer zone for Kyiv between Russia and its border regions. And, if the troops manage to hold on to the territory, it’s an additional bargaining chip for Ukraine’s leadership in future talks with Russia—whenever that happens. But Ukraine had a more pressing objective — to divert Russian attention from its campaign in Donetsk where its troops were steadily advancing towards Pokrovsk, a strategically important city in the east. Ukraine wanted to force Russia to relocate some of its troops to the Kursk defence and weaken weaken the Pokrovsk offensive.
Russia did actually reinforce its Kursk defence, which seemed to have halted Ukraine’s advance in the region. But Russia has also doubled down on its offensive in Donetsk. On the other side, Ukraine’s decision to move some of its well-trained troops to the Kursk incursion seemed to have weakened the already crumbling defence in the east. As a result, Russia made lightning advances towards Pokrovsk in August, marching through open lands and rounding up villages and small settlement towns. According to British intelligence, Russian troops are now within the 10 km from Pokrovsk. Both Russian and Ukrainian military bloggers as well as open source-based battlefield maps corroborate the Russian claims of battlefield advances in the east.
Mr. Zelenskyy admitted last week the situation in the east was tough. Russia has also intensified missile and drone attacks in Ukraine. In one such attack, Russian missiles hit a Ukrainian military training institute on September 3, killing, according to the official account, at least 55 people. If the Russians take Pokrovsk, a key supply hub with converging roads and rail lines, Ukraine’s defence of its east would be under further pressure, and, several analysts say, Russians, who already control 80% of the Donbas region (comprising Donetsk and Luhansk) could march towards Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. This raises questions about the strategic thinking behind the Kursk incursion.
The Kursk incursion suggests that Ukraine’s troops still possess the capability to spring wartime surprises. But if the main objective of the attack was to slow down Russia’s advances in the east, it has failed to achieve that. The present battlefield reality leaves Mr. Zelesnkyy and Gen. Syrsky with few good options. The stress Mr. Zelesnkyy was under was visible when he overhauled his Cabinet last week, sacking even the seasoned wartime Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
Mr. Zelesnkyy is now asking for more weapons, and permission from his western allies, mainly the U.S., to strike deeper inside Russia using western long-range weapons. But it’s not clear how missile strikes inside Russia would help Kyiv’s forces turn around the war on the battlefield. The U.S., which continues to supply weapons to Ukraine, seems vary of Mr. Zelesnkyy’s demand, for now.
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Published – September 09, 2024 04:59 pm IST
